Moderna (MRNA): seasonality, best and worst months, and drawdowns
Health Care · 7.9 years of daily prices, Dec 7, 2018 to Oct 29, 2026
Since 2018, MRNA has closed higher in 54% of months and 43% of calendar years. Its strongest month on average has been November (+20.6%), and its weakest December (-3.3%). Its deepest drop was -95%, from Aug 9, 2021 to Nov 20, 2025, and it hasn't regained that high yet.
Average return by calendar month
| Average | Up | Years | |||
| Jan | +11.2% | 63% | 8 | ||
| Feb | +1.6% | 38% | 8 | ||
| Mar | +1.9% | 50% | 8 | ||
| Apr | +9.7% | 63% | 8 | ||
| May | +5.8% | 63% | 8 | ||
| Jun | +3.9% | 50% | 8 | ||
| Jul | +6.6% | 63% | 8 | ||
| Aug | +11.7% | 38% | 8 | ||
| Sep | +3.0% | 63% | 8 | ||
| Oct | -3.2% | 43% | 7 | ||
| Nov | +20.6% | 71% | 7 | ||
| Dec | -3.3% | 43% | 7 | ||
"Up" is the share of years that month closed higher. Unfinished months aren't counted.
Best and worst
| Best | Worst | |
|---|---|---|
| Day | +177.0% Aug 19, 2026 |
-23.5% Aug 20, 2026 |
| Month | +156.0% August 2026 |
-35.1% August 2024 |
| Year | +434% 2020 |
-58% 2024 |
This year so far: +655.4%.
Drawdowns
MRNA has fallen 20% or more from a high 8 times and 10% or more 14 times since 2018. In a typical year it has dropped 53% from that year's high at some point, even in years it ended up.
How it moves
| Days that close higher | 49% |
| Typical daily move (1 std. dev.) | ±6.1% |
| Typical monthly move | ±28.9% |
| Moves beyond 3 std. dev. vs. a bell curve | 1.9× as often |
| Beta to the S&P 500 (5 yrs) | 1.43 |
| Price growth per year | +37.1% |
| ... missing its 10 best days | -3.1% |
Price only, before dividends.
See all of MRNA's stats
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Start the free options lessons →Updated Oct 30, 2026 from daily closing prices. Educational information, not investment advice. Past patterns don't guarantee future results. All stock pages